Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 7:14 pm. The worst numbers for McCain so far.
Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
260+ 0.9988 | 260+ 0.0056
265+ 0.9981 | 265+ 0.0038
266+ 0.9980 | 266+ 0.0035
267+ 0.9978 | 267+ 0.0033
268+ 0.9976 | 268+ 0.0030
269+ 0.9974 | 269+ 0.0028
270+ 0.9972 | 270+ 0.0026
271+ 0.9970 | 271+ 0.0024
272+ 0.9967 | 272+ 0.0022
273+ 0.9965 | 273+ 0.0020
274+ 0.9962 | 274+ 0.0019
275+ 0.9958 | 275+ 0.0017
280+ 0.9940 | 280+ 0.0011
285+ 0.9916 | 285+ 0.0007
290+ 0.9882 | 290+ 0.0004
295+ 0.9838 | 295+ 0.0003
300+ 0.9781 | 300+ 0.0001
305+ 0.9706 | 305+ 0.0001
310+ 0.9602 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9472 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9300 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9074 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.8782 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.8426 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.7979 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.7430 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.6793 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.6069 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.5295 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.4393 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.3565 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.2793 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1976 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.1384 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0948 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0609 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0391 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0250 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0159 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0101 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0061 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0034 | 425+ 0.0000
430+ 0.0018 | 430+ 0.0000
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