Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Live odds: 10:24

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 10:24 pm. Very likely Obama will make it over 350 electoral votes, still about a 1 in 4 chance of getting 375+.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
260+ 0.9998 | 260+ 0.0020
265+ 0.9996 | 265+ 0.0012
266+ 0.9995 | 266+ 0.0011
267+ 0.9994 | 267+ 0.0010
268+ 0.9993 | 268+ 0.0009
269+ 0.9993 | 269+ 0.0008
270+ 0.9992 | 270+ 0.0007
271+ 0.9991 | 271+ 0.0007
272+ 0.9990 | 272+ 0.0006
273+ 0.9989 | 273+ 0.0005
274+ 0.9988 | 274+ 0.0004
275+ 0.9986 | 275+ 0.0004
280+ 0.9978 | 280+ 0.0002
285+ 0.9962 | 285+ 0.0001
290+ 0.9942 | 290+ 0.0001
295+ 0.9907 | 295+ 0.0000
300+ 0.9863 | 300+ 0.0000
305+ 0.9817 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9729 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9659 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9577 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9455 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9308 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.9112 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.8762 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.8329 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.7582 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.6668 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.5802 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.4157 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.3158 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.2325 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1207 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0783 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0502 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0340 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0226 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0151 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0078 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0039 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0016 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0006 | 425+ 0.0000
430+ 0.0002 | 430+ 0.0000

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