Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
260+ 0.9997 | 260+ 0.0022
265+ 0.9994 | 265+ 0.0014
266+ 0.9994 | 266+ 0.0012
267+ 0.9993 | 267+ 0.0011
268+ 0.9992 | 268+ 0.0010
269+ 0.9992 | 269+ 0.0009
270+ 0.9991 | 270+ 0.0008
271+ 0.9990 | 271+ 0.0008
272+ 0.9989 | 272+ 0.0007
273+ 0.9988 | 273+ 0.0006
274+ 0.9986 | 274+ 0.0006
275+ 0.9985 | 275+ 0.0005
280+ 0.9976 | 280+ 0.0003
285+ 0.9963 | 285+ 0.0002
290+ 0.9945 | 290+ 0.0001
295+ 0.9918 | 295+ 0.0001
300+ 0.9882 | 300+ 0.0000
305+ 0.9836 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9769 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9694 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9600 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9468 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9312 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.9110 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.8822 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.8432 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.7915 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.7220 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.6439 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.5349 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.4318 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.3341 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.2169 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.1444 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0973 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0603 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0393 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0261 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0164 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0101 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0056 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0028 | 425+ 0.0000
430+ 0.0014 | 430+ 0.0000
435+ 0.0005 | 435+ 0.0000
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