Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9997 | 255+ 0.0047
260+ 0.9995 | 260+ 0.0031
265+ 0.9992 | 265+ 0.0019
266+ 0.9991 | 266+ 0.0018
267+ 0.9991 | 267+ 0.0016
268+ 0.9989 | 268+ 0.0014
269+ 0.9988 | 269+ 0.0013
270+ 0.9987 | 270+ 0.0012
271+ 0.9986 | 271+ 0.0011
272+ 0.9984 | 272+ 0.0009
273+ 0.9982 | 273+ 0.0009
274+ 0.9981 | 274+ 0.0008
275+ 0.9979 | 275+ 0.0007
280+ 0.9967 | 280+ 0.0004
285+ 0.9950 | 285+ 0.0002
290+ 0.9925 | 290+ 0.0001
295+ 0.9892 | 295+ 0.0001
300+ 0.9845 | 300+ 0.0000
305+ 0.9789 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9700 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9612 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9500 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9342 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9137 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.8884 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.8509 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.8004 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.7370 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.6472 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.5547 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.4156 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.3150 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.2214 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1227 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0734 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0477 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0334 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0229 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0150 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0082 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0042 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0015 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0006 | 425+ 0.0000
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment