Live odds: 11 pm

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 11 pm. CNN has called VA and the election for Obama, and that seems not unreasonable at this point. It remains to be seen how many electoral votes he'll get.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 260+       0.9998    |    260+       0.0020
 265+       0.9996    |    265+       0.0012
 266+       0.9995    |    266+       0.0010
 267+       0.9995    |    267+       0.0009
 268+       0.9994    |    268+       0.0008
 269+       0.9993    |    269+       0.0008
 270+       0.9992    |    270+       0.0007
 271+       0.9992    |    271+       0.0006
 272+       0.9991    |    272+       0.0005
 273+       0.9990    |    273+       0.0005
 274+       0.9988    |    274+       0.0004
 275+       0.9987    |    275+       0.0004
 280+       0.9979    |    280+       0.0002
 285+       0.9964    |    285+       0.0001
 290+       0.9946    |    290+       0.0001
 295+       0.9902    |    295+       0.0000
 300+       0.9865    |    300+       0.0000
 305+       0.9822    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9724    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9663    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9585    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9458    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9317    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.9127    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8790    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.8407    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7451    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6679    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5856    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.3939    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3095    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2351    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1154    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0741    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0491    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0309    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0208    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0146    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0067    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0035    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0014    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0005    |    425+       0.0000