Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Live odds: 11:34

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes as of 11:34 pm. McCain has conceded, and at this point it's quite clear that the only question is how significant a margin it'll be.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
280+ 0.9998 | 280+ 0.0000
285+ 0.9996 | 285+ 0.0000
290+ 0.9994 | 290+ 0.0000
295+ 0.9988 | 295+ 0.0000
300+ 0.9980 | 300+ 0.0000
305+ 0.9972 | 305+ 0.0000
310+ 0.9949 | 310+ 0.0000
315+ 0.9929 | 315+ 0.0000
320+ 0.9904 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.9859 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.9798 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.9699 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.9522 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.9244 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.8675 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.7954 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.7198 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.5170 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.3886 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.2975 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1313 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0809 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0577 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0415 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0280 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0190 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0093 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0041 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0016 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0005 | 425+ 0.0000

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