As always, each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
255+ 0.9987 | 255+ 0.0117
260+ 0.9980 | 260+ 0.0082
265+ 0.9971 | 265+ 0.0057
266+ 0.9969 | 266+ 0.0053
267+ 0.9966 | 267+ 0.0049
268+ 0.9963 | 268+ 0.0046
269+ 0.9961 | 269+ 0.0042
270+ 0.9958 | 270+ 0.0039
271+ 0.9954 | 271+ 0.0037
272+ 0.9951 | 272+ 0.0034
273+ 0.9947 | 273+ 0.0031
274+ 0.9943 | 274+ 0.0029
275+ 0.9939 | 275+ 0.0027
280+ 0.9912 | 280+ 0.0018
285+ 0.9874 | 285+ 0.0012
290+ 0.9821 | 290+ 0.0008
295+ 0.9746 | 295+ 0.0005
300+ 0.9644 | 300+ 0.0003
305+ 0.9504 | 305+ 0.0002
310+ 0.9313 | 310+ 0.0001
315+ 0.9067 | 315+ 0.0001
320+ 0.8751 | 320+ 0.0000
325+ 0.8357 | 325+ 0.0000
330+ 0.7867 | 330+ 0.0000
335+ 0.7311 | 335+ 0.0000
340+ 0.6658 | 340+ 0.0000
345+ 0.5928 | 345+ 0.0000
350+ 0.5159 | 350+ 0.0000
355+ 0.4356 | 355+ 0.0000
360+ 0.3569 | 360+ 0.0000
365+ 0.2792 | 365+ 0.0000
370+ 0.2130 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.1561 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.1079 | 380+ 0.0000
385+ 0.0740 | 385+ 0.0000
390+ 0.0489 | 390+ 0.0000
395+ 0.0315 | 395+ 0.0000
400+ 0.0202 | 400+ 0.0000
405+ 0.0126 | 405+ 0.0000
410+ 0.0078 | 410+ 0.0000
415+ 0.0047 | 415+ 0.0000
420+ 0.0027 | 420+ 0.0000
425+ 0.0014 | 425+ 0.0000
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1 comment:
Matt,
Great site! Do you have the individual state numbers from Monday night, and would you be willing to send them to me?
I'm looking to do a follow-up post to my blog post here:
http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/
but I need the Monday night InTrade data. I plan on comparing how accurate it was and how accurate the final percentages from fivethirtyeight.com were in the end.
I'm more than happy to chat if you're curious, and I'd be more than willing to cite you in the post I'm writing!
Best regards,
Jed
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