Live odds: 8:39

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes at 8:39 pm. Still looks terrible for McCain. At this point, the question is probably how much of an Obama landslide are we looking at. Fortunately, I have some numbers about that too. Like a 26.67% chance of 375+ electoral votes, for example.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9997    |    255+       0.0049
 260+       0.9994    |    260+       0.0033
 265+       0.9991    |    265+       0.0022
 266+       0.9990    |    266+       0.0020
 267+       0.9989    |    267+       0.0018
 268+       0.9988    |    268+       0.0016
 269+       0.9986    |    269+       0.0015
 270+       0.9985    |    270+       0.0014
 271+       0.9984    |    271+       0.0012
 272+       0.9982    |    272+       0.0011
 273+       0.9980    |    273+       0.0010
 274+       0.9978    |    274+       0.0009
 275+       0.9977    |    275+       0.0008
 280+       0.9964    |    280+       0.0005
 285+       0.9946    |    285+       0.0003
 290+       0.9922    |    290+       0.0002
 295+       0.9888    |    295+       0.0001
 300+       0.9842    |    300+       0.0001
 305+       0.9786    |    305+       0.0000
 310+       0.9705    |    310+       0.0000
 315+       0.9610    |    315+       0.0000
 320+       0.9489    |    320+       0.0000
 325+       0.9323    |    325+       0.0000
 330+       0.9114    |    330+       0.0000
 335+       0.8847    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.8478    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.7993    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.7379    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.6593    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.5739    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.4636    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.3607    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.2667    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1669    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.1007    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0632    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0408    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0279    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0190    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0119    |    410+       0.0000
 415+       0.0069    |    415+       0.0000
 420+       0.0032    |    420+       0.0000
 425+       0.0013    |    425+       0.0000
 430+       0.0005    |    430+       0.0000