Sunday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 5.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9882    |    230+       0.4442
 235+       0.9841    |    235+       0.3829
 240+       0.9789    |    240+       0.3253
 245+       0.9723    |    245+       0.2724
 250+       0.9639    |    250+       0.2249
 255+       0.9532    |    255+       0.1834
 260+       0.9398    |    260+       0.1479
 265+       0.9230    |    265+       0.1180
 266+       0.9192    |    266+       0.1126
 267+       0.9152    |    267+       0.1075
 268+       0.9111    |    268+       0.1026
 269+       0.9066    |    269+       0.0979
 270+       0.9021    |    270+       0.0934
 271+       0.8974    |    271+       0.0889
 272+       0.8925    |    272+       0.0848
 273+       0.8874    |    273+       0.0808
 274+       0.8820    |    274+       0.0770
 275+       0.8764    |    275+       0.0733
 280+       0.8454    |    280+       0.0573
 285+       0.8087    |    285+       0.0444
 290+       0.7659    |    290+       0.0343
 295+       0.7174    |    295+       0.0262
 300+       0.6635    |    300+       0.0199
 305+       0.6050    |    305+       0.0149
 310+       0.5432    |    310+       0.0111
 315+       0.4797    |    315+       0.0081
 320+       0.4157    |    320+       0.0058
 325+       0.3533    |    325+       0.0041
 330+       0.2940    |    330+       0.0028
 335+       0.2394    |    335+       0.0019
 340+       0.1902    |    340+       0.0012
 345+       0.1475    |    345+       0.0008
 350+       0.1115    |    350+       0.0005
 355+       0.0822    |    355+       0.0003
 360+       0.0592    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0414    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0285    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0192    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Saturday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 4. Still more improvement for Obama, as every day McCain doesn't turn things around makes the ultimate outcome less uncertain.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 235+       0.9870    |    235+       0.3714
 240+       0.9826    |    240+       0.3136
 245+       0.9768    |    245+       0.2606
 250+       0.9693    |    250+       0.2132
 255+       0.9596    |    255+       0.1721
 260+       0.9472    |    260+       0.1371
 265+       0.9313    |    265+       0.1080
 266+       0.9277    |    266+       0.1028
 267+       0.9240    |    267+       0.0978
 268+       0.9200    |    268+       0.0931
 269+       0.9158    |    269+       0.0886
 270+       0.9114    |    270+       0.0842
 271+       0.9069    |    271+       0.0800
 272+       0.9022    |    272+       0.0760
 273+       0.8972    |    273+       0.0723
 274+       0.8920    |    274+       0.0687
 275+       0.8866    |    275+       0.0652
 280+       0.8563    |    280+       0.0501
 285+       0.8201    |    285+       0.0383
 290+       0.7776    |    290+       0.0291
 295+       0.7292    |    295+       0.0220
 300+       0.6752    |    300+       0.0164
 305+       0.6164    |    305+       0.0122
 310+       0.5540    |    310+       0.0089
 315+       0.4898    |    315+       0.0065
 320+       0.4249    |    320+       0.0046
 325+       0.3615    |    325+       0.0032
 330+       0.3012    |    330+       0.0022
 335+       0.2455    |    335+       0.0015
 340+       0.1954    |    340+       0.0010
 345+       0.1516    |    345+       0.0006
 350+       0.1149    |    350+       0.0004
 355+       0.0848    |    355+       0.0002
 360+       0.0611    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0429    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0296    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0199    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0131    |    380+       0.0000

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Fri. Oct. 3, following the VP debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. No dramatic shifts, but Obama's pretty close to the 90% mark at this point.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9875    |    230+       0.4497
 235+       0.9832    |    235+       0.3889
 240+       0.9778    |    240+       0.3317
 245+       0.9708    |    245+       0.2791
 250+       0.9619    |    250+       0.2316
 255+       0.9507    |    255+       0.1898
 260+       0.9366    |    260+       0.1538
 265+       0.9191    |    265+       0.1232
 266+       0.9151    |    266+       0.1178
 267+       0.9110    |    267+       0.1125
 268+       0.9066    |    268+       0.1075
 269+       0.9021    |    269+       0.1026
 270+       0.8974    |    270+       0.0979
 271+       0.8925    |    271+       0.0934
 272+       0.8875    |    272+       0.0890
 273+       0.8822    |    273+       0.0849
 274+       0.8768    |    274+       0.0809
 275+       0.8710    |    275+       0.0771
 280+       0.8395    |    280+       0.0603
 285+       0.8023    |    285+       0.0469
 290+       0.7593    |    290+       0.0361
 295+       0.7108    |    295+       0.0277
 300+       0.6572    |    300+       0.0210
 305+       0.5991    |    305+       0.0158
 310+       0.5378    |    310+       0.0118
 315+       0.4749    |    315+       0.0087
 320+       0.4115    |    320+       0.0063
 325+       0.3496    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2908    |    330+       0.0031
 335+       0.2365    |    335+       0.0021
 340+       0.1877    |    340+       0.0014
 345+       0.1452    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1095    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0805    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0576    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0400    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0273    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0182    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0119    |    380+       0.0000

Post-VP Debate Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes after the VP debate.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9873    |    230+       0.4560
 235+       0.9830    |    235+       0.3947
 240+       0.9774    |    240+       0.3369
 245+       0.9704    |    245+       0.2835
 250+       0.9614    |    250+       0.2352
 255+       0.9501    |    255+       0.1926
 260+       0.9359    |    260+       0.1559
 265+       0.9181    |    265+       0.1249
 266+       0.9141    |    266+       0.1193
 267+       0.9099    |    267+       0.1139
 268+       0.9055    |    268+       0.1088
 269+       0.9009    |    269+       0.1039
 270+       0.8961    |    270+       0.0991
 271+       0.8912    |    271+       0.0945
 272+       0.8861    |    272+       0.0901
 273+       0.8807    |    273+       0.0859
 274+       0.8751    |    274+       0.0819
 275+       0.8693    |    275+       0.0780
 280+       0.8372    |    280+       0.0610
 285+       0.7993    |    285+       0.0474
 290+       0.7556    |    290+       0.0366
 295+       0.7063    |    295+       0.0281
 300+       0.6519    |    300+       0.0214
 305+       0.5932    |    305+       0.0161
 310+       0.5316    |    310+       0.0120
 315+       0.4686    |    315+       0.0088
 320+       0.4056    |    320+       0.0064
 325+       0.3444    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2864    |    330+       0.0032
 335+       0.2332    |    335+       0.0022
 340+       0.1855    |    340+       0.0015
 345+       0.1440    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1091    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0808    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0583    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0409    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0283    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0191    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 2. Not much movement from last night.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9888    |    225+       0.5493
 230+       0.9849    |    230+       0.4864
 235+       0.9800    |    235+       0.4245
 240+       0.9736    |    240+       0.3654
 245+       0.9655    |    245+       0.3101
 250+       0.9553    |    250+       0.2596
 255+       0.9424    |    255+       0.2144
 260+       0.9262    |    260+       0.1750
 265+       0.9063    |    265+       0.1413
 266+       0.9018    |    266+       0.1352
 267+       0.8971    |    267+       0.1293
 268+       0.8922    |    268+       0.1236
 269+       0.8871    |    269+       0.1182
 270+       0.8818    |    270+       0.1129
 271+       0.8764    |    271+       0.1078
 272+       0.8707    |    272+       0.1029
 273+       0.8648    |    273+       0.0982
 274+       0.8587    |    274+       0.0937
 275+       0.8524    |    275+       0.0894
 280+       0.8175    |    280+       0.0702
 285+       0.7769    |    285+       0.0548
 290+       0.7307    |    290+       0.0425
 295+       0.6792    |    295+       0.0327
 300+       0.6231    |    300+       0.0250
 305+       0.5632    |    305+       0.0189
 310+       0.5011    |    310+       0.0142
 315+       0.4382    |    315+       0.0105
 320+       0.3760    |    320+       0.0077
 325+       0.3161    |    325+       0.0055
 330+       0.2601    |    330+       0.0039
 335+       0.2093    |    335+       0.0027
 340+       0.1644    |    340+       0.0019
 345+       0.1258    |    345+       0.0012
 350+       0.0939    |    350+       0.0008
 355+       0.0683    |    355+       0.0005
 360+       0.0483    |    360+       0.0003
 365+       0.0333    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0225    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0149    |    375+       0.0001

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 1. Bad news for McCain in the polls seems to be getting absorbed by the markets.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9867    |    230+       0.4796
 235+       0.9821    |    235+       0.4178
 240+       0.9762    |    240+       0.3586
 245+       0.9686    |    245+       0.3034
 250+       0.9589    |    250+       0.2530
 255+       0.9465    |    255+       0.2080
 260+       0.9309    |    260+       0.1688
 265+       0.9114    |    265+       0.1353
 266+       0.9070    |    266+       0.1293
 267+       0.9025    |    267+       0.1235
 268+       0.8977    |    268+       0.1179
 269+       0.8927    |    269+       0.1125
 270+       0.8875    |    270+       0.1073
 271+       0.8821    |    271+       0.1023
 272+       0.8765    |    272+       0.0975
 273+       0.8707    |    273+       0.0930
 274+       0.8647    |    274+       0.0886
 275+       0.8584    |    275+       0.0843
 280+       0.8238    |    280+       0.0656
 285+       0.7834    |    285+       0.0507
 290+       0.7373    |    290+       0.0389
 295+       0.6859    |    295+       0.0297
 300+       0.6298    |    300+       0.0225
 305+       0.5700    |    305+       0.0169
 310+       0.5078    |    310+       0.0126
 315+       0.4448    |    315+       0.0093
 320+       0.3825    |    320+       0.0067
 325+       0.3225    |    325+       0.0048
 330+       0.2662    |    330+       0.0034
 335+       0.2150    |    335+       0.0024
 340+       0.1696    |    340+       0.0016
 345+       0.1304    |    345+       0.0011
 350+       0.0979    |    350+       0.0007
 355+       0.0717    |    355+       0.0005
 360+       0.0511    |    360+       0.0003
 365+       0.0355    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0242    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0161    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0104    |    380+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9885    |    225+       0.5792
 230+       0.9845    |    230+       0.5158
 235+       0.9793    |    235+       0.4527
 240+       0.9726    |    240+       0.3916
 245+       0.9640    |    245+       0.3336
 250+       0.9530    |    250+       0.2800
 255+       0.9390    |    255+       0.2317
 260+       0.9214    |    260+       0.1891
 265+       0.8996    |    265+       0.1524
 266+       0.8947    |    266+       0.1457
 267+       0.8896    |    267+       0.1393
 268+       0.8842    |    268+       0.1331
 269+       0.8787    |    269+       0.1271
 270+       0.8729    |    270+       0.1213
 271+       0.8669    |    271+       0.1158
 272+       0.8607    |    272+       0.1104
 273+       0.8543    |    273+       0.1053
 274+       0.8476    |    274+       0.1004
 275+       0.8407    |    275+       0.0957
 280+       0.8028    |    280+       0.0747
 285+       0.7590    |    285+       0.0579
 290+       0.7096    |    290+       0.0446
 295+       0.6551    |    295+       0.0341
 300+       0.5965    |    300+       0.0259
 305+       0.5347    |    305+       0.0195
 310+       0.4715    |    310+       0.0146
 315+       0.4084    |    315+       0.0108
 320+       0.3469    |    320+       0.0079
 325+       0.2886    |    325+       0.0057
 330+       0.2349    |    330+       0.0041
 335+       0.1870    |    335+       0.0028
 340+       0.1452    |    340+       0.0019
 345+       0.1100    |    345+       0.0013
 350+       0.0812    |    350+       0.0009
 355+       0.0585    |    355+       0.0006
 360+       0.0411    |    360+       0.0004
 365+       0.0282    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0189    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0125    |    375+       0.0001

The overall "Obama to win" and "McCain to win" contracts say they have a 64.8% and 34.8% chance respectively.