Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Tue. Oct. 7, going into the debate. Obama's numbers keep increasing, with him winning 93.6% of the time. Intrade's global contract gives him a 68.7% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 240+       0.9887    |    240+       0.2502
 245+       0.9847    |    245+       0.2039
 250+       0.9794    |    250+       0.1638
 255+       0.9724    |    255+       0.1298
 260+       0.9632    |    260+       0.1017
 265+       0.9514    |    265+       0.0787
 266+       0.9487    |    266+       0.0747
 267+       0.9458    |    267+       0.0708
 268+       0.9428    |    268+       0.0672
 269+       0.9396    |    269+       0.0637
 270+       0.9363    |    270+       0.0604
 271+       0.9328    |    271+       0.0572
 272+       0.9292    |    272+       0.0542
 273+       0.9253    |    273+       0.0513
 274+       0.9213    |    274+       0.0486
 275+       0.9171    |    275+       0.0460
 280+       0.8931    |    280+       0.0347
 285+       0.8638    |    285+       0.0261
 290+       0.8286    |    290+       0.0195
 295+       0.7873    |    295+       0.0144
 300+       0.7399    |    300+       0.0106
 305+       0.6867    |    305+       0.0077
 310+       0.6285    |    310+       0.0055
 315+       0.5666    |    315+       0.0039
 320+       0.5021    |    320+       0.0028
 325+       0.4368    |    325+       0.0019
 330+       0.3725    |    330+       0.0013
 335+       0.3111    |    335+       0.0008
 340+       0.2539    |    340+       0.0005
 345+       0.2022    |    345+       0.0003
 350+       0.1572    |    350+       0.0002
 355+       0.1192    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.0882    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0635    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0449    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0311    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0210    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0139    |    385+       0.0000

Monday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 6.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 235+       0.9874    |    235+       0.3638
 240+       0.9830    |    240+       0.3062
 245+       0.9773    |    245+       0.2537
 250+       0.9701    |    250+       0.2071
 255+       0.9607    |    255+       0.1668
 260+       0.9487    |    260+       0.1328
 265+       0.9335    |    265+       0.1045
 266+       0.9300    |    266+       0.0995
 267+       0.9264    |    267+       0.0947
 268+       0.9225    |    268+       0.0902
 269+       0.9185    |    269+       0.0858
 270+       0.9142    |    270+       0.0815
 271+       0.9098    |    271+       0.0775
 272+       0.9053    |    272+       0.0736
 273+       0.9005    |    273+       0.0700
 274+       0.8955    |    274+       0.0665
 275+       0.8902    |    275+       0.0632
 280+       0.8609    |    280+       0.0486
 285+       0.8256    |    285+       0.0372
 290+       0.7840    |    290+       0.0283
 295+       0.7363    |    295+       0.0214
 300+       0.6827    |    300+       0.0161
 305+       0.6240    |    305+       0.0119
 310+       0.5614    |    310+       0.0087
 315+       0.4966    |    315+       0.0063
 320+       0.4309    |    320+       0.0045
 325+       0.3663    |    325+       0.0031
 330+       0.3046    |    330+       0.0021
 335+       0.2475    |    335+       0.0014
 340+       0.1960    |    340+       0.0009
 345+       0.1510    |    345+       0.0006
 350+       0.1133    |    350+       0.0004
 355+       0.0827    |    355+       0.0002
 360+       0.0586    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0403    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0272    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0179    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0115    |    380+       0.0000

Sunday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 5.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9882    |    230+       0.4442
 235+       0.9841    |    235+       0.3829
 240+       0.9789    |    240+       0.3253
 245+       0.9723    |    245+       0.2724
 250+       0.9639    |    250+       0.2249
 255+       0.9532    |    255+       0.1834
 260+       0.9398    |    260+       0.1479
 265+       0.9230    |    265+       0.1180
 266+       0.9192    |    266+       0.1126
 267+       0.9152    |    267+       0.1075
 268+       0.9111    |    268+       0.1026
 269+       0.9066    |    269+       0.0979
 270+       0.9021    |    270+       0.0934
 271+       0.8974    |    271+       0.0889
 272+       0.8925    |    272+       0.0848
 273+       0.8874    |    273+       0.0808
 274+       0.8820    |    274+       0.0770
 275+       0.8764    |    275+       0.0733
 280+       0.8454    |    280+       0.0573
 285+       0.8087    |    285+       0.0444
 290+       0.7659    |    290+       0.0343
 295+       0.7174    |    295+       0.0262
 300+       0.6635    |    300+       0.0199
 305+       0.6050    |    305+       0.0149
 310+       0.5432    |    310+       0.0111
 315+       0.4797    |    315+       0.0081
 320+       0.4157    |    320+       0.0058
 325+       0.3533    |    325+       0.0041
 330+       0.2940    |    330+       0.0028
 335+       0.2394    |    335+       0.0019
 340+       0.1902    |    340+       0.0012
 345+       0.1475    |    345+       0.0008
 350+       0.1115    |    350+       0.0005
 355+       0.0822    |    355+       0.0003
 360+       0.0592    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0414    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0285    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0192    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Saturday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 4. Still more improvement for Obama, as every day McCain doesn't turn things around makes the ultimate outcome less uncertain.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 235+       0.9870    |    235+       0.3714
 240+       0.9826    |    240+       0.3136
 245+       0.9768    |    245+       0.2606
 250+       0.9693    |    250+       0.2132
 255+       0.9596    |    255+       0.1721
 260+       0.9472    |    260+       0.1371
 265+       0.9313    |    265+       0.1080
 266+       0.9277    |    266+       0.1028
 267+       0.9240    |    267+       0.0978
 268+       0.9200    |    268+       0.0931
 269+       0.9158    |    269+       0.0886
 270+       0.9114    |    270+       0.0842
 271+       0.9069    |    271+       0.0800
 272+       0.9022    |    272+       0.0760
 273+       0.8972    |    273+       0.0723
 274+       0.8920    |    274+       0.0687
 275+       0.8866    |    275+       0.0652
 280+       0.8563    |    280+       0.0501
 285+       0.8201    |    285+       0.0383
 290+       0.7776    |    290+       0.0291
 295+       0.7292    |    295+       0.0220
 300+       0.6752    |    300+       0.0164
 305+       0.6164    |    305+       0.0122
 310+       0.5540    |    310+       0.0089
 315+       0.4898    |    315+       0.0065
 320+       0.4249    |    320+       0.0046
 325+       0.3615    |    325+       0.0032
 330+       0.3012    |    330+       0.0022
 335+       0.2455    |    335+       0.0015
 340+       0.1954    |    340+       0.0010
 345+       0.1516    |    345+       0.0006
 350+       0.1149    |    350+       0.0004
 355+       0.0848    |    355+       0.0002
 360+       0.0611    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0429    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0296    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0199    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0131    |    380+       0.0000

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Fri. Oct. 3, following the VP debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. No dramatic shifts, but Obama's pretty close to the 90% mark at this point.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9875    |    230+       0.4497
 235+       0.9832    |    235+       0.3889
 240+       0.9778    |    240+       0.3317
 245+       0.9708    |    245+       0.2791
 250+       0.9619    |    250+       0.2316
 255+       0.9507    |    255+       0.1898
 260+       0.9366    |    260+       0.1538
 265+       0.9191    |    265+       0.1232
 266+       0.9151    |    266+       0.1178
 267+       0.9110    |    267+       0.1125
 268+       0.9066    |    268+       0.1075
 269+       0.9021    |    269+       0.1026
 270+       0.8974    |    270+       0.0979
 271+       0.8925    |    271+       0.0934
 272+       0.8875    |    272+       0.0890
 273+       0.8822    |    273+       0.0849
 274+       0.8768    |    274+       0.0809
 275+       0.8710    |    275+       0.0771
 280+       0.8395    |    280+       0.0603
 285+       0.8023    |    285+       0.0469
 290+       0.7593    |    290+       0.0361
 295+       0.7108    |    295+       0.0277
 300+       0.6572    |    300+       0.0210
 305+       0.5991    |    305+       0.0158
 310+       0.5378    |    310+       0.0118
 315+       0.4749    |    315+       0.0087
 320+       0.4115    |    320+       0.0063
 325+       0.3496    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2908    |    330+       0.0031
 335+       0.2365    |    335+       0.0021
 340+       0.1877    |    340+       0.0014
 345+       0.1452    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1095    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0805    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0576    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0400    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0273    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0182    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0119    |    380+       0.0000

Post-VP Debate Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes after the VP debate.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9873    |    230+       0.4560
 235+       0.9830    |    235+       0.3947
 240+       0.9774    |    240+       0.3369
 245+       0.9704    |    245+       0.2835
 250+       0.9614    |    250+       0.2352
 255+       0.9501    |    255+       0.1926
 260+       0.9359    |    260+       0.1559
 265+       0.9181    |    265+       0.1249
 266+       0.9141    |    266+       0.1193
 267+       0.9099    |    267+       0.1139
 268+       0.9055    |    268+       0.1088
 269+       0.9009    |    269+       0.1039
 270+       0.8961    |    270+       0.0991
 271+       0.8912    |    271+       0.0945
 272+       0.8861    |    272+       0.0901
 273+       0.8807    |    273+       0.0859
 274+       0.8751    |    274+       0.0819
 275+       0.8693    |    275+       0.0780
 280+       0.8372    |    280+       0.0610
 285+       0.7993    |    285+       0.0474
 290+       0.7556    |    290+       0.0366
 295+       0.7063    |    295+       0.0281
 300+       0.6519    |    300+       0.0214
 305+       0.5932    |    305+       0.0161
 310+       0.5316    |    310+       0.0120
 315+       0.4686    |    315+       0.0088
 320+       0.4056    |    320+       0.0064
 325+       0.3444    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2864    |    330+       0.0032
 335+       0.2332    |    335+       0.0022
 340+       0.1855    |    340+       0.0015
 345+       0.1440    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1091    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0808    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0583    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0409    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0283    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0191    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 2. Not much movement from last night.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9888    |    225+       0.5493
 230+       0.9849    |    230+       0.4864
 235+       0.9800    |    235+       0.4245
 240+       0.9736    |    240+       0.3654
 245+       0.9655    |    245+       0.3101
 250+       0.9553    |    250+       0.2596
 255+       0.9424    |    255+       0.2144
 260+       0.9262    |    260+       0.1750
 265+       0.9063    |    265+       0.1413
 266+       0.9018    |    266+       0.1352
 267+       0.8971    |    267+       0.1293
 268+       0.8922    |    268+       0.1236
 269+       0.8871    |    269+       0.1182
 270+       0.8818    |    270+       0.1129
 271+       0.8764    |    271+       0.1078
 272+       0.8707    |    272+       0.1029
 273+       0.8648    |    273+       0.0982
 274+       0.8587    |    274+       0.0937
 275+       0.8524    |    275+       0.0894
 280+       0.8175    |    280+       0.0702
 285+       0.7769    |    285+       0.0548
 290+       0.7307    |    290+       0.0425
 295+       0.6792    |    295+       0.0327
 300+       0.6231    |    300+       0.0250
 305+       0.5632    |    305+       0.0189
 310+       0.5011    |    310+       0.0142
 315+       0.4382    |    315+       0.0105
 320+       0.3760    |    320+       0.0077
 325+       0.3161    |    325+       0.0055
 330+       0.2601    |    330+       0.0039
 335+       0.2093    |    335+       0.0027
 340+       0.1644    |    340+       0.0019
 345+       0.1258    |    345+       0.0012
 350+       0.0939    |    350+       0.0008
 355+       0.0683    |    355+       0.0005
 360+       0.0483    |    360+       0.0003
 365+       0.0333    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0225    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0149    |    375+       0.0001