Friday night's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Fri. Oct. 31.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 268+       0.9894    |    268+       0.0129
 269+       0.9887    |    269+       0.0121
 270+       0.9879    |    270+       0.0113
 271+       0.9871    |    271+       0.0106
 272+       0.9863    |    272+       0.0099
 273+       0.9854    |    273+       0.0093
 274+       0.9844    |    274+       0.0087
 275+       0.9834    |    275+       0.0082
 280+       0.9774    |    280+       0.0058
 285+       0.9693    |    285+       0.0041
 290+       0.9585    |    290+       0.0028
 295+       0.9443    |    295+       0.0019
 300+       0.9260    |    300+       0.0013
 305+       0.9025    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8727    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8365    |    315+       0.0003
 320+       0.7929    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7418    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6831    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6193    |    335+       0.0000
 340+       0.5498    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4767    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4037    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3322    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2648    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2025    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1507    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1075    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0730    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0486    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0314    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0198    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0123    |    400+       0.0000

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 31. McCain's chances of winning are down to 1.16%. [Insert trick-or-treat joke here.] The national Obama-to-win contract is sitting at 85%. Just a few days to go!

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at
269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 267+       0.9898    |    267+       0.0141
 268+       0.9891    |    268+       0.0132
 269+       0.9884    |    269+       0.0124
 270+       0.9876    |    270+       0.0116
 271+       0.9868    |    271+       0.0109
 272+       0.9859    |    272+       0.0102
 273+       0.9850    |    273+       0.0096
 274+       0.9840    |    274+       0.0090
 275+       0.9829    |    275+       0.0084
 280+       0.9768    |    280+       0.0060
 285+       0.9685    |    285+       0.0042
 290+       0.9575    |    290+       0.0029
 295+       0.9432    |    295+       0.0020
 300+       0.9247    |    300+       0.0014
 305+       0.9012    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8716    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8357    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7927    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7425    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6849    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6220    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5538    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4820    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4098    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3393    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2724    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2103    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1580    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1142    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0785    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0529    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0345    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0219    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0137    |    400+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 30, a mere 5 days from election day (for those not counting the minutes). Although his national contract is down to 84.5%, Obama's state-by-state numbers look as good as ever after a momentary (and small) post-infomercial blip last night.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 266+       0.9894    |    266+       0.0165
 267+       0.9887    |    267+       0.0155
 268+       0.9880    |    268+       0.0146
 269+       0.9872    |    269+       0.0136
 270+       0.9864    |    270+       0.0128
 271+       0.9854    |    271+       0.0120
 272+       0.9845    |    272+       0.0113
 273+       0.9835    |    273+       0.0106
 274+       0.9824    |    274+       0.0099
 275+       0.9813    |    275+       0.0093
 280+       0.9746    |    280+       0.0066
 285+       0.9656    |    285+       0.0047
 290+       0.9537    |    290+       0.0033
 295+       0.9382    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9184    |    300+       0.0015
 305+       0.8932    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8618    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8239    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7788    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7267    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6674    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6035    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5346    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4631    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3917    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3227    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2580    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1985    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1492    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1078    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0747    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0508    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0336    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0217    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0138    |    400+       0.0000

Post-Obamafomercial Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 29, following Obama's paid 30-minute national infomercial. This is the lowest he's been at in days, although 98% still isn't bad. He's down a couple of points in the national contract as well.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at
269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 260+       0.9891    |    260+       0.0329
 265+       0.9852    |    265+       0.0249
 266+       0.9843    |    266+       0.0236
 267+       0.9833    |    267+       0.0223
 268+       0.9823    |    268+       0.0210
 269+       0.9813    |    269+       0.0198
 270+       0.9802    |    270+       0.0187
 271+       0.9790    |    271+       0.0177
 272+       0.9777    |    272+       0.0167
 273+       0.9764    |    273+       0.0157
 274+       0.9751    |    274+       0.0148
 275+       0.9736    |    275+       0.0140
 280+       0.9653    |    280+       0.0103
 285+       0.9546    |    285+       0.0074
 290+       0.9411    |    290+       0.0053
 295+       0.9239    |    295+       0.0037
 300+       0.9026    |    300+       0.0026
 305+       0.8761    |    305+       0.0017
 310+       0.8438    |    310+       0.0011
 315+       0.8054    |    315+       0.0007
 320+       0.7603    |    320+       0.0005
 325+       0.7086    |    325+       0.0003
 330+       0.6504    |    330+       0.0002
 335+       0.5878    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5208    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.4513    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3820    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3152    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2525    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1951    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1470    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1068    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0745    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0510    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0339    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0219    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0140    |    400+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 29. Obama's national contract is currently sitting at an 87.8% chance for him to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at
269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9877    |    265+       0.0210
 266+       0.9869    |    266+       0.0198
 267+       0.9861    |    267+       0.0187
 268+       0.9852    |    268+       0.0177
 269+       0.9843    |    269+       0.0166
 270+       0.9834    |    270+       0.0157
 271+       0.9823    |    271+       0.0148
 272+       0.9813    |    272+       0.0139
 273+       0.9802    |    273+       0.0131
 274+       0.9790    |    274+       0.0123
 275+       0.9777    |    275+       0.0116
 280+       0.9706    |    280+       0.0085
 285+       0.9613    |    285+       0.0061
 290+       0.9496    |    290+       0.0043
 295+       0.9347    |    295+       0.0030
 300+       0.9161    |    300+       0.0020
 305+       0.8930    |    305+       0.0014
 310+       0.8645    |    310+       0.0009
 315+       0.8304    |    315+       0.0006
 320+       0.7897    |    320+       0.0004
 325+       0.7425    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6883    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6289    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5641    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4954    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4257    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3566    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2905    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2286    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1754    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1299    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0924    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0644    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0437    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0289    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0188    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0120    |    405+       0.0000

Tuesday evening's odds

Sorry for the delay, here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 28.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9888    |    265+       0.0192
 266+       0.9881    |    266+       0.0181
 267+       0.9874    |    267+       0.0171
 268+       0.9866    |    268+       0.0161
 269+       0.9857    |    269+       0.0151
 270+       0.9849    |    270+       0.0143
 271+       0.9839    |    271+       0.0134
 272+       0.9829    |    272+       0.0126
 273+       0.9819    |    273+       0.0119
 274+       0.9808    |    274+       0.0112
 275+       0.9797    |    275+       0.0105
 280+       0.9730    |    280+       0.0076
 285+       0.9645    |    285+       0.0054
 290+       0.9536    |    290+       0.0038
 295+       0.9398    |    295+       0.0026
 300+       0.9224    |    300+       0.0018
 305+       0.9005    |    305+       0.0012
 310+       0.8734    |    310+       0.0008
 315+       0.8406    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.8013    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7553    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7020    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6432    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5787    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5097    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4391    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3687    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3007    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2365    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1808    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1331    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0936    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0641    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0425    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0273    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0173    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0107    |    405+       0.0000

No numbers today

My laptop is being repaired, and since I forgot to transfer the scripts I use to generate the numbers I post here I'm afraid there won't be any new posts until tomorrow evening, probably around 6-7pm Eastern.

Many apologies.

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 26. The national contracts give Obama an 87% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9884    |    265+       0.0198
 266+       0.9877    |    266+       0.0187
 267+       0.9869    |    267+       0.0176
 268+       0.9861    |    268+       0.0166
 269+       0.9852    |    269+       0.0157
 270+       0.9843    |    270+       0.0148
 271+       0.9834    |    271+       0.0139
 272+       0.9824    |    272+       0.0131
 273+       0.9813    |    273+       0.0123
 274+       0.9802    |    274+       0.0116
 275+       0.9790    |    275+       0.0109
 280+       0.9722    |    280+       0.0079
 285+       0.9635    |    285+       0.0057
 290+       0.9524    |    290+       0.0040
 295+       0.9382    |    295+       0.0028
 300+       0.9204    |    300+       0.0019
 305+       0.8983    |    305+       0.0013
 310+       0.8709    |    310+       0.0008
 315+       0.8380    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.7987    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7529    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7008    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6431    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5805    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5141    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4463    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3787    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3134    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2520    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1972    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1496    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1093    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0778    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0540    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0365    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0242    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0157    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0101    |    410+       0.0000

Saturday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 25. Obama's national contract gives him an 86.6% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9900    |    265+       0.0173
 266+       0.9893    |    266+       0.0163
 267+       0.9887    |    267+       0.0154
 268+       0.9879    |    268+       0.0145
 269+       0.9872    |    269+       0.0136
 270+       0.9864    |    270+       0.0128
 271+       0.9855    |    271+       0.0121
 272+       0.9846    |    272+       0.0113
 273+       0.9837    |    273+       0.0107
 274+       0.9827    |    274+       0.0100
 275+       0.9817    |    275+       0.0094
 280+       0.9756    |    280+       0.0068
 285+       0.9679    |    285+       0.0048
 290+       0.9579    |    290+       0.0034
 295+       0.9453    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9293    |    300+       0.0016
 305+       0.9093    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8844    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8543    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.8180    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7753    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7262    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6710    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.6105    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5455    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4781    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.4099    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3432    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2793    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.2213    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1702    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1261    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0908    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0636    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0434    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0289    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0190    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0123    |    410+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 23.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9871    |    265+       0.0223
 266+       0.9862    |    266+       0.0210
 267+       0.9854    |    267+       0.0198
 268+       0.9844    |    268+       0.0186
 269+       0.9835    |    269+       0.0175
 270+       0.9825    |    270+       0.0165
 271+       0.9814    |    271+       0.0156
 272+       0.9802    |    272+       0.0146
 273+       0.9790    |    273+       0.0138
 274+       0.9777    |    274+       0.0129
 275+       0.9764    |    275+       0.0122
 280+       0.9685    |    280+       0.0089
 285+       0.9582    |    285+       0.0064
 290+       0.9449    |    290+       0.0045
 295+       0.9279    |    295+       0.0032
 300+       0.9065    |    300+       0.0022
 305+       0.8797    |    305+       0.0015
 310+       0.8469    |    310+       0.0010
 315+       0.8079    |    315+       0.0006
 320+       0.7620    |    320+       0.0004
 325+       0.7096    |    325+       0.0003
 330+       0.6508    |    330+       0.0002
 335+       0.5876    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5204    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.4511    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3823    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3162    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2543    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1976    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1497    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1098    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0775    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0536    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0364    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0243    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0159    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0102    |    405+       0.0000

Wednesday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 22.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9879    |    265+       0.0211
 266+       0.9871    |    266+       0.0199
 267+       0.9863    |    267+       0.0187
 268+       0.9854    |    268+       0.0176
 269+       0.9844    |    269+       0.0166
 270+       0.9834    |    270+       0.0156
 271+       0.9824    |    271+       0.0146
 272+       0.9813    |    272+       0.0137
 273+       0.9801    |    273+       0.0129
 274+       0.9789    |    274+       0.0121
 275+       0.9776    |    275+       0.0114
 280+       0.9698    |    280+       0.0083
 285+       0.9595    |    285+       0.0059
 290+       0.9461    |    290+       0.0042
 295+       0.9288    |    295+       0.0029
 300+       0.9068    |    300+       0.0020
 305+       0.8793    |    305+       0.0014
 310+       0.8456    |    310+       0.0009
 315+       0.8056    |    315+       0.0006
 320+       0.7586    |    320+       0.0004
 325+       0.7052    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6458    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.5819    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5147    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4456    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3775    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3123    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2516    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1966    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1497    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1106    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0789    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0550    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0376    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0252    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0166    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0107    |    405+       0.0000

Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 21. Intrade's national contracts give Obama an 84.1% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9890    |    265+       0.0193
 266+       0.9883    |    266+       0.0181
 267+       0.9875    |    267+       0.0171
 268+       0.9867    |    268+       0.0160
 269+       0.9858    |    269+       0.0151
 270+       0.9849    |    270+       0.0142
 271+       0.9840    |    271+       0.0133
 272+       0.9829    |    272+       0.0125
 273+       0.9819    |    273+       0.0117
 274+       0.9807    |    274+       0.0110
 275+       0.9795    |    275+       0.0103
 280+       0.9724    |    280+       0.0075
 285+       0.9629    |    285+       0.0053
 290+       0.9504    |    290+       0.0038
 295+       0.9342    |    295+       0.0026
 300+       0.9135    |    300+       0.0018
 305+       0.8875    |    305+       0.0012
 310+       0.8552    |    310+       0.0008
 315+       0.8165    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.7707    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7180    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6585    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.5943    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5260    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4550    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3848    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3174    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2543    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1970    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1489    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1089    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0769    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0532    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0361    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0241    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0157    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0100    |    405+       0.0000

Monday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 20. Obama's national contract gives him an 85% chance of winning.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9885    |    265+       0.0201
 266+       0.9877    |    266+       0.0189
 267+       0.9869    |    267+       0.0178
 268+       0.9861    |    268+       0.0168
 269+       0.9852    |    269+       0.0158
 270+       0.9842    |    270+       0.0148
 271+       0.9832    |    271+       0.0139
 272+       0.9822    |    272+       0.0131
 273+       0.9811    |    273+       0.0123
 274+       0.9799    |    274+       0.0115
 275+       0.9786    |    275+       0.0108
 280+       0.9712    |    280+       0.0078
 285+       0.9613    |    285+       0.0056
 290+       0.9484    |    290+       0.0040
 295+       0.9317    |    295+       0.0028
 300+       0.9104    |    300+       0.0019
 305+       0.8837    |    305+       0.0013
 310+       0.8508    |    310+       0.0008
 315+       0.8115    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.7652    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7121    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6526    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.5884    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5205    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4504    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3810    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3146    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2527    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1968    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1494    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1101    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0786    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0549    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0377    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0254    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0168    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0108    |    405+       0.0000

Sunday's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 19.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 267+       0.9897    |    267+       0.0145
 268+       0.9889    |    268+       0.0135
 269+       0.9882    |    269+       0.0126
 270+       0.9874    |    270+       0.0118
 271+       0.9865    |    271+       0.0111
 272+       0.9855    |    272+       0.0103
 273+       0.9846    |    273+       0.0097
 274+       0.9835    |    274+       0.0090
 275+       0.9824    |    275+       0.0084
 280+       0.9756    |    280+       0.0060
 285+       0.9665    |    285+       0.0042
 290+       0.9543    |    290+       0.0029
 295+       0.9383    |    295+       0.0020
 300+       0.9178    |    300+       0.0014
 305+       0.8918    |    305+       0.0009
 310+       0.8596    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8210    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.7753    |    320+       0.0002
 325+       0.7228    |    325+       0.0001
 330+       0.6639    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6001    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5323    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.4623    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.3927    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3257    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2629    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2058    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1572    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1165    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0836    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0587    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0405    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0274    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0181    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0118    |    405+       0.0000

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 17. Little change from yesterday.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 266+       0.9897    |    266+       0.0158
 267+       0.9891    |    267+       0.0149
 268+       0.9884    |    268+       0.0140
 269+       0.9876    |    269+       0.0132
 270+       0.9868    |    270+       0.0124
 271+       0.9860    |    271+       0.0116
 272+       0.9851    |    272+       0.0109
 273+       0.9842    |    273+       0.0103
 274+       0.9832    |    274+       0.0096
 275+       0.9822    |    275+       0.0090
 280+       0.9761    |    280+       0.0065
 285+       0.9683    |    285+       0.0046
 290+       0.9581    |    290+       0.0032
 295+       0.9450    |    295+       0.0022
 300+       0.9283    |    300+       0.0015
 305+       0.9073    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8812    |    310+       0.0006
 315+       0.8492    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.8108    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7655    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7132    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6546    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5905    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5219    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4510    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3804    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3123    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2485    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1922    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1444    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1050    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0744    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0518    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0355    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0238    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0156    |    405+       0.0000

Post-Debate: Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 16, following the last debate. McCain's numbers have further deteriorated slightly, though not nearly as much as they have on the national contracts, which currently give McCain a 15.3% chance of winning. Then again, there isn't really room for them to.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 266+       0.9895    |    266+       0.0161
 267+       0.9888    |    267+       0.0152
 268+       0.9881    |    268+       0.0143
 269+       0.9874    |    269+       0.0134
 270+       0.9866    |    270+       0.0126
 271+       0.9857    |    271+       0.0119
 272+       0.9848    |    272+       0.0112
 273+       0.9839    |    273+       0.0105
 274+       0.9829    |    274+       0.0098
 275+       0.9819    |    275+       0.0092
 280+       0.9758    |    280+       0.0067
 285+       0.9679    |    285+       0.0047
 290+       0.9577    |    290+       0.0033
 295+       0.9448    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9284    |    300+       0.0015
 305+       0.9078    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8821    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8509    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.8133    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7689    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7174    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6595    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5959    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5275    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4567    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3861    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3177    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2534    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1967    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1484    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1084    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0772    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0541    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0371    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0250    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0165    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0106    |    410+       0.0000

Wednesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 15. Today marks the first time Obama's national contract has broken 80%, and the first time that McCain's chances according to my state-by-state simulations have dropped below 2%.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9895    |    265+       0.0182
 266+       0.9889    |    266+       0.0171
 267+       0.9881    |    267+       0.0161
 268+       0.9874    |    268+       0.0152
 269+       0.9866    |    269+       0.0143
 270+       0.9857    |    270+       0.0134
 271+       0.9848    |    271+       0.0126
 272+       0.9839    |    272+       0.0119
 273+       0.9829    |    273+       0.0111
 274+       0.9818    |    274+       0.0105
 275+       0.9807    |    275+       0.0098
 280+       0.9741    |    280+       0.0071
 285+       0.9654    |    285+       0.0051
 290+       0.9542    |    290+       0.0036
 295+       0.9398    |    295+       0.0025
 300+       0.9215    |    300+       0.0017
 305+       0.8985    |    305+       0.0011
 310+       0.8701    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8358    |    315+       0.0005
 320+       0.7950    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7474    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.6934    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6335    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.5688    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5008    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4314    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.3631    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2977    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2372    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1839    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1386    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1013    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0721    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0503    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0342    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0229    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0150    |    405+       0.0000

Tuesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Tue. Oct. 14. McCain's chances dropped very slightly again today. Intrade's national contracts still have Obama at a 77% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9887    |    255+       0.0590
 260+       0.9846    |    260+       0.0452
 265+       0.9794    |    265+       0.0344
 266+       0.9781    |    266+       0.0325
 267+       0.9768    |    267+       0.0307
 268+       0.9755    |    268+       0.0291
 269+       0.9740    |    269+       0.0275
 270+       0.9725    |    270+       0.0260
 271+       0.9709    |    271+       0.0245
 272+       0.9693    |    272+       0.0232
 273+       0.9675    |    273+       0.0219
 274+       0.9656    |    274+       0.0206
 275+       0.9637    |    275+       0.0195
 280+       0.9523    |    280+       0.0145
 285+       0.9378    |    285+       0.0107
 290+       0.9195    |    290+       0.0078
 295+       0.8968    |    295+       0.0056
 300+       0.8690    |    300+       0.0040
 305+       0.8353    |    305+       0.0028
 310+       0.7956    |    310+       0.0019
 315+       0.7496    |    315+       0.0013
 320+       0.6975    |    320+       0.0008
 325+       0.6398    |    325+       0.0006
 330+       0.5774    |    330+       0.0003
 335+       0.5119    |    335+       0.0002
 340+       0.4449    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.3782    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.3139    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.2541    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.2002    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1532    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1141    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0827    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0583    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0402    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0272    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0180    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0117    |    400+       0.0000

Monday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 13. Virtually no change from yesterday, although Obama's lost 1.2 points to go to 76.5% on the national Intrade contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9878    |    255+       0.0635
 260+       0.9834    |    260+       0.0486
 265+       0.9778    |    265+       0.0370
 266+       0.9765    |    266+       0.0350
 267+       0.9751    |    267+       0.0331
 268+       0.9736    |    268+       0.0313
 269+       0.9720    |    269+       0.0296
 270+       0.9704    |    270+       0.0280
 271+       0.9687    |    271+       0.0264
 272+       0.9669    |    272+       0.0249
 273+       0.9650    |    273+       0.0235
 274+       0.9630    |    274+       0.0222
 275+       0.9609    |    275+       0.0210
 280+       0.9487    |    280+       0.0156
 285+       0.9331    |    285+       0.0115
 290+       0.9134    |    290+       0.0084
 295+       0.8891    |    295+       0.0061
 300+       0.8593    |    300+       0.0043
 305+       0.8235    |    305+       0.0030
 310+       0.7813    |    310+       0.0021
 315+       0.7328    |    315+       0.0014
 320+       0.6781    |    320+       0.0009
 325+       0.6180    |    325+       0.0006
 330+       0.5534    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4864    |    335+       0.0002
 340+       0.4184    |    340+       0.0001
 345+       0.3513    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2877    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2295    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1778    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1336    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0977    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0697    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0483    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0328    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0219    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0143    |    395+       0.0000

Sunday's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 12. Obama just barely cracks the 97% mark. His national contract is predicting a 77.7% chance.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9877    |    255+       0.0635
 260+       0.9834    |    260+       0.0487
 265+       0.9777    |    265+       0.0370
 266+       0.9764    |    266+       0.0350
 267+       0.9750    |    267+       0.0331
 268+       0.9736    |    268+       0.0313
 269+       0.9720    |    269+       0.0296
 270+       0.9704    |    270+       0.0280
 271+       0.9687    |    271+       0.0264
 272+       0.9669    |    272+       0.0250
 273+       0.9650    |    273+       0.0236
 274+       0.9630    |    274+       0.0223
 275+       0.9609    |    275+       0.0210
 280+       0.9486    |    280+       0.0157
 285+       0.9331    |    285+       0.0115
 290+       0.9135    |    290+       0.0084
 295+       0.8892    |    295+       0.0061
 300+       0.8595    |    300+       0.0043
 305+       0.8239    |    305+       0.0030
 310+       0.7819    |    310+       0.0021
 315+       0.7337    |    315+       0.0014
 320+       0.6794    |    320+       0.0009
 325+       0.6197    |    325+       0.0006
 330+       0.5558    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4893    |    335+       0.0002
 340+       0.4219    |    340+       0.0002
 345+       0.3554    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2921    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2339    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1822    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1375    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.1012    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0726    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0505    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0344    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0230    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0151    |    395+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 11. More or less unchanged from yesterday.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9871    |    255+       0.0664
 260+       0.9825    |    260+       0.0510
 265+       0.9766    |    265+       0.0388
 266+       0.9752    |    266+       0.0367
 267+       0.9738    |    267+       0.0347
 268+       0.9722    |    268+       0.0329
 269+       0.9706    |    269+       0.0311
 270+       0.9689    |    270+       0.0294
 271+       0.9671    |    271+       0.0278
 272+       0.9653    |    272+       0.0262
 273+       0.9633    |    273+       0.0248
 274+       0.9612    |    274+       0.0234
 275+       0.9590    |    275+       0.0221
 280+       0.9462    |    280+       0.0165
 285+       0.9300    |    285+       0.0122
 290+       0.9096    |    290+       0.0089
 295+       0.8844    |    295+       0.0064
 300+       0.8537    |    300+       0.0046
 305+       0.8169    |    305+       0.0032
 310+       0.7738    |    310+       0.0022
 315+       0.7245    |    315+       0.0015
 320+       0.6693    |    320+       0.0010
 325+       0.6090    |    325+       0.0007
 330+       0.5448    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4784    |    335+       0.0003
 340+       0.4114    |    340+       0.0002
 345+       0.3457    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2835    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2267    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1762    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1328    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0976    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0699    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0486    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0331    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0221    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0145    |    395+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Fri. Oct. 10. Another day, another point for Obama, who now sits at 96.85% to win here, 77% in his "Obama to win" national contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 255+       0.9869    |    255+       0.0673
 260+       0.9823    |    260+       0.0516
 265+       0.9763    |    265+       0.0393
 266+       0.9749    |    266+       0.0372
 267+       0.9734    |    267+       0.0352
 268+       0.9719    |    268+       0.0333
 269+       0.9702    |    269+       0.0315
 270+       0.9685    |    270+       0.0298
 271+       0.9667    |    271+       0.0281
 272+       0.9648    |    272+       0.0266
 273+       0.9628    |    273+       0.0251
 274+       0.9607    |    274+       0.0237
 275+       0.9584    |    275+       0.0224
 280+       0.9455    |    280+       0.0167
 285+       0.9291    |    285+       0.0124
 290+       0.9085    |    290+       0.0090
 295+       0.8831    |    295+       0.0065
 300+       0.8521    |    300+       0.0047
 305+       0.8150    |    305+       0.0033
 310+       0.7715    |    310+       0.0023
 315+       0.7219    |    315+       0.0015
 320+       0.6662    |    320+       0.0010
 325+       0.6054    |    325+       0.0007
 330+       0.5406    |    330+       0.0004
 335+       0.4737    |    335+       0.0003
 340+       0.4063    |    340+       0.0002
 345+       0.3402    |    345+       0.0001
 350+       0.2778    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.2209    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.1708    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.1278    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0932    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0664    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0458    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0310    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0207    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0135    |    395+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 9. A further increase for Obama's odds, up to a 96% chance that he'll win outright. Interestingly, this is on the heels of a 3% decrease of his odds to 74% on the main Intrade "Obama to win" contract.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 250+       0.9875    |    250+       0.1095
 255+       0.9831    |    255+       0.0852
 260+       0.9773    |    260+       0.0657
 265+       0.9697    |    265+       0.0502
 266+       0.9679    |    266+       0.0475
 267+       0.9660    |    267+       0.0449
 268+       0.9640    |    268+       0.0425
 269+       0.9620    |    269+       0.0402
 270+       0.9598    |    270+       0.0380
 271+       0.9575    |    271+       0.0360
 272+       0.9551    |    272+       0.0340
 273+       0.9525    |    273+       0.0321
 274+       0.9498    |    274+       0.0303
 275+       0.9470    |    275+       0.0287
 280+       0.9308    |    280+       0.0214
 285+       0.9103    |    285+       0.0159
 290+       0.8850    |    290+       0.0117
 295+       0.8542    |    295+       0.0085
 300+       0.8174    |    300+       0.0062
 305+       0.7743    |    305+       0.0044
 310+       0.7249    |    310+       0.0031
 315+       0.6698    |    315+       0.0021
 320+       0.6095    |    320+       0.0015
 325+       0.5454    |    325+       0.0010
 330+       0.4789    |    330+       0.0006
 335+       0.4122    |    335+       0.0004
 340+       0.3467    |    340+       0.0003
 345+       0.2844    |    345+       0.0002
 350+       0.2275    |    350+       0.0001
 355+       0.1772    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.1341    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.0984    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0707    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0494    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0336    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0225    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0148    |    390+       0.0000

Wednesday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Wed. Oct. 8.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 240+       0.9885    |    240+       0.2221
 245+       0.9845    |    245+       0.1813
 250+       0.9793    |    250+       0.1463
 255+       0.9728    |    255+       0.1169
 260+       0.9644    |    260+       0.0925
 265+       0.9538    |    265+       0.0727
 266+       0.9513    |    266+       0.0692
 267+       0.9488    |    267+       0.0658
 268+       0.9461    |    268+       0.0627
 269+       0.9433    |    269+       0.0596
 270+       0.9404    |    270+       0.0567
 271+       0.9373    |    271+       0.0539
 272+       0.9342    |    272+       0.0512
 273+       0.9308    |    273+       0.0487
 274+       0.9273    |    274+       0.0462
 275+       0.9237    |    275+       0.0439
 280+       0.9030    |    280+       0.0338
 285+       0.8776    |    285+       0.0258
 290+       0.8471    |    290+       0.0195
 295+       0.8110    |    295+       0.0146
 300+       0.7691    |    300+       0.0109
 305+       0.7212    |    305+       0.0079
 310+       0.6679    |    310+       0.0057
 315+       0.6100    |    315+       0.0040
 320+       0.5483    |    320+       0.0028
 325+       0.4845    |    325+       0.0019
 330+       0.4200    |    330+       0.0013
 335+       0.3569    |    335+       0.0008
 340+       0.2965    |    340+       0.0005
 345+       0.2405    |    345+       0.0003
 350+       0.1905    |    350+       0.0002
 355+       0.1471    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.1107    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0810    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0582    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0408    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0279    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0188    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0124    |    390+       0.0000

Post-debate odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the evening of Tue. Oct. 7, immediately following the 2nd debate. A bit more of a bump for Obama.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 245+       0.9874    |    245+       0.1760
 250+       0.9830    |    250+       0.1401
 255+       0.9771    |    255+       0.1102
 260+       0.9695    |    260+       0.0857
 265+       0.9595    |    265+       0.0660
 266+       0.9572    |    266+       0.0626
 267+       0.9548    |    267+       0.0593
 268+       0.9523    |    268+       0.0562
 269+       0.9496    |    269+       0.0533
 270+       0.9467    |    270+       0.0504
 271+       0.9438    |    271+       0.0477
 272+       0.9407    |    272+       0.0452
 273+       0.9374    |    273+       0.0428
 274+       0.9340    |    274+       0.0405
 275+       0.9304    |    275+       0.0383
 280+       0.9098    |    280+       0.0288
 285+       0.8843    |    285+       0.0216
 290+       0.8532    |    290+       0.0160
 295+       0.8161    |    295+       0.0118
 300+       0.7728    |    300+       0.0086
 305+       0.7233    |    305+       0.0062
 310+       0.6681    |    310+       0.0044
 315+       0.6082    |    315+       0.0031
 320+       0.5445    |    320+       0.0022
 325+       0.4788    |    325+       0.0015
 330+       0.4127    |    330+       0.0010
 335+       0.3485    |    335+       0.0006
 340+       0.2874    |    340+       0.0004
 345+       0.2311    |    345+       0.0003
 350+       0.1813    |    350+       0.0002
 355+       0.1387    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.1034    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0749    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0533    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0371    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0252    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0168    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0110    |    390+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Tue. Oct. 7, going into the debate. Obama's numbers keep increasing, with him winning 93.6% of the time. Intrade's global contract gives him a 68.7% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 240+       0.9887    |    240+       0.2502
 245+       0.9847    |    245+       0.2039
 250+       0.9794    |    250+       0.1638
 255+       0.9724    |    255+       0.1298
 260+       0.9632    |    260+       0.1017
 265+       0.9514    |    265+       0.0787
 266+       0.9487    |    266+       0.0747
 267+       0.9458    |    267+       0.0708
 268+       0.9428    |    268+       0.0672
 269+       0.9396    |    269+       0.0637
 270+       0.9363    |    270+       0.0604
 271+       0.9328    |    271+       0.0572
 272+       0.9292    |    272+       0.0542
 273+       0.9253    |    273+       0.0513
 274+       0.9213    |    274+       0.0486
 275+       0.9171    |    275+       0.0460
 280+       0.8931    |    280+       0.0347
 285+       0.8638    |    285+       0.0261
 290+       0.8286    |    290+       0.0195
 295+       0.7873    |    295+       0.0144
 300+       0.7399    |    300+       0.0106
 305+       0.6867    |    305+       0.0077
 310+       0.6285    |    310+       0.0055
 315+       0.5666    |    315+       0.0039
 320+       0.5021    |    320+       0.0028
 325+       0.4368    |    325+       0.0019
 330+       0.3725    |    330+       0.0013
 335+       0.3111    |    335+       0.0008
 340+       0.2539    |    340+       0.0005
 345+       0.2022    |    345+       0.0003
 350+       0.1572    |    350+       0.0002
 355+       0.1192    |    355+       0.0001
 360+       0.0882    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0635    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.0449    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0311    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0210    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0139    |    385+       0.0000

Monday morning's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Mon. Oct. 6.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 235+       0.9874    |    235+       0.3638
 240+       0.9830    |    240+       0.3062
 245+       0.9773    |    245+       0.2537
 250+       0.9701    |    250+       0.2071
 255+       0.9607    |    255+       0.1668
 260+       0.9487    |    260+       0.1328
 265+       0.9335    |    265+       0.1045
 266+       0.9300    |    266+       0.0995
 267+       0.9264    |    267+       0.0947
 268+       0.9225    |    268+       0.0902
 269+       0.9185    |    269+       0.0858
 270+       0.9142    |    270+       0.0815
 271+       0.9098    |    271+       0.0775
 272+       0.9053    |    272+       0.0736
 273+       0.9005    |    273+       0.0700
 274+       0.8955    |    274+       0.0665
 275+       0.8902    |    275+       0.0632
 280+       0.8609    |    280+       0.0486
 285+       0.8256    |    285+       0.0372
 290+       0.7840    |    290+       0.0283
 295+       0.7363    |    295+       0.0214
 300+       0.6827    |    300+       0.0161
 305+       0.6240    |    305+       0.0119
 310+       0.5614    |    310+       0.0087
 315+       0.4966    |    315+       0.0063
 320+       0.4309    |    320+       0.0045
 325+       0.3663    |    325+       0.0031
 330+       0.3046    |    330+       0.0021
 335+       0.2475    |    335+       0.0014
 340+       0.1960    |    340+       0.0009
 345+       0.1510    |    345+       0.0006
 350+       0.1133    |    350+       0.0004
 355+       0.0827    |    355+       0.0002
 360+       0.0586    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0403    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0272    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0179    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0115    |    380+       0.0000

Sunday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sun. Oct. 5.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9882    |    230+       0.4442
 235+       0.9841    |    235+       0.3829
 240+       0.9789    |    240+       0.3253
 245+       0.9723    |    245+       0.2724
 250+       0.9639    |    250+       0.2249
 255+       0.9532    |    255+       0.1834
 260+       0.9398    |    260+       0.1479
 265+       0.9230    |    265+       0.1180
 266+       0.9192    |    266+       0.1126
 267+       0.9152    |    267+       0.1075
 268+       0.9111    |    268+       0.1026
 269+       0.9066    |    269+       0.0979
 270+       0.9021    |    270+       0.0934
 271+       0.8974    |    271+       0.0889
 272+       0.8925    |    272+       0.0848
 273+       0.8874    |    273+       0.0808
 274+       0.8820    |    274+       0.0770
 275+       0.8764    |    275+       0.0733
 280+       0.8454    |    280+       0.0573
 285+       0.8087    |    285+       0.0444
 290+       0.7659    |    290+       0.0343
 295+       0.7174    |    295+       0.0262
 300+       0.6635    |    300+       0.0199
 305+       0.6050    |    305+       0.0149
 310+       0.5432    |    310+       0.0111
 315+       0.4797    |    315+       0.0081
 320+       0.4157    |    320+       0.0058
 325+       0.3533    |    325+       0.0041
 330+       0.2940    |    330+       0.0028
 335+       0.2394    |    335+       0.0019
 340+       0.1902    |    340+       0.0012
 345+       0.1475    |    345+       0.0008
 350+       0.1115    |    350+       0.0005
 355+       0.0822    |    355+       0.0003
 360+       0.0592    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0414    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0285    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0192    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Saturday's odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 4. Still more improvement for Obama, as every day McCain doesn't turn things around makes the ultimate outcome less uncertain.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 235+       0.9870    |    235+       0.3714
 240+       0.9826    |    240+       0.3136
 245+       0.9768    |    245+       0.2606
 250+       0.9693    |    250+       0.2132
 255+       0.9596    |    255+       0.1721
 260+       0.9472    |    260+       0.1371
 265+       0.9313    |    265+       0.1080
 266+       0.9277    |    266+       0.1028
 267+       0.9240    |    267+       0.0978
 268+       0.9200    |    268+       0.0931
 269+       0.9158    |    269+       0.0886
 270+       0.9114    |    270+       0.0842
 271+       0.9069    |    271+       0.0800
 272+       0.9022    |    272+       0.0760
 273+       0.8972    |    273+       0.0723
 274+       0.8920    |    274+       0.0687
 275+       0.8866    |    275+       0.0652
 280+       0.8563    |    280+       0.0501
 285+       0.8201    |    285+       0.0383
 290+       0.7776    |    290+       0.0291
 295+       0.7292    |    295+       0.0220
 300+       0.6752    |    300+       0.0164
 305+       0.6164    |    305+       0.0122
 310+       0.5540    |    310+       0.0089
 315+       0.4898    |    315+       0.0065
 320+       0.4249    |    320+       0.0046
 325+       0.3615    |    325+       0.0032
 330+       0.3012    |    330+       0.0022
 335+       0.2455    |    335+       0.0015
 340+       0.1954    |    340+       0.0010
 345+       0.1516    |    345+       0.0006
 350+       0.1149    |    350+       0.0004
 355+       0.0848    |    355+       0.0002
 360+       0.0611    |    360+       0.0001
 365+       0.0429    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0296    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.0199    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.0131    |    380+       0.0000

Friday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for the morning of Fri. Oct. 3, following the VP debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden. No dramatic shifts, but Obama's pretty close to the 90% mark at this point.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9875    |    230+       0.4497
 235+       0.9832    |    235+       0.3889
 240+       0.9778    |    240+       0.3317
 245+       0.9708    |    245+       0.2791
 250+       0.9619    |    250+       0.2316
 255+       0.9507    |    255+       0.1898
 260+       0.9366    |    260+       0.1538
 265+       0.9191    |    265+       0.1232
 266+       0.9151    |    266+       0.1178
 267+       0.9110    |    267+       0.1125
 268+       0.9066    |    268+       0.1075
 269+       0.9021    |    269+       0.1026
 270+       0.8974    |    270+       0.0979
 271+       0.8925    |    271+       0.0934
 272+       0.8875    |    272+       0.0890
 273+       0.8822    |    273+       0.0849
 274+       0.8768    |    274+       0.0809
 275+       0.8710    |    275+       0.0771
 280+       0.8395    |    280+       0.0603
 285+       0.8023    |    285+       0.0469
 290+       0.7593    |    290+       0.0361
 295+       0.7108    |    295+       0.0277
 300+       0.6572    |    300+       0.0210
 305+       0.5991    |    305+       0.0158
 310+       0.5378    |    310+       0.0118
 315+       0.4749    |    315+       0.0087
 320+       0.4115    |    320+       0.0063
 325+       0.3496    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2908    |    330+       0.0031
 335+       0.2365    |    335+       0.0021
 340+       0.1877    |    340+       0.0014
 345+       0.1452    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1095    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0805    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0576    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0400    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0273    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0182    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0119    |    380+       0.0000

Post-VP Debate Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes after the VP debate.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9873    |    230+       0.4560
 235+       0.9830    |    235+       0.3947
 240+       0.9774    |    240+       0.3369
 245+       0.9704    |    245+       0.2835
 250+       0.9614    |    250+       0.2352
 255+       0.9501    |    255+       0.1926
 260+       0.9359    |    260+       0.1559
 265+       0.9181    |    265+       0.1249
 266+       0.9141    |    266+       0.1193
 267+       0.9099    |    267+       0.1139
 268+       0.9055    |    268+       0.1088
 269+       0.9009    |    269+       0.1039
 270+       0.8961    |    270+       0.0991
 271+       0.8912    |    271+       0.0945
 272+       0.8861    |    272+       0.0901
 273+       0.8807    |    273+       0.0859
 274+       0.8751    |    274+       0.0819
 275+       0.8693    |    275+       0.0780
 280+       0.8372    |    280+       0.0610
 285+       0.7993    |    285+       0.0474
 290+       0.7556    |    290+       0.0366
 295+       0.7063    |    295+       0.0281
 300+       0.6519    |    300+       0.0214
 305+       0.5932    |    305+       0.0161
 310+       0.5316    |    310+       0.0120
 315+       0.4686    |    315+       0.0088
 320+       0.4056    |    320+       0.0064
 325+       0.3444    |    325+       0.0045
 330+       0.2864    |    330+       0.0032
 335+       0.2332    |    335+       0.0022
 340+       0.1855    |    340+       0.0015
 345+       0.1440    |    345+       0.0010
 350+       0.1091    |    350+       0.0006
 355+       0.0808    |    355+       0.0004
 360+       0.0583    |    360+       0.0002
 365+       0.0409    |    365+       0.0001
 370+       0.0283    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0191    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0126    |    380+       0.0000

Thursday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Thu. Oct. 2. Not much movement from last night.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9888    |    225+       0.5493
 230+       0.9849    |    230+       0.4864
 235+       0.9800    |    235+       0.4245
 240+       0.9736    |    240+       0.3654
 245+       0.9655    |    245+       0.3101
 250+       0.9553    |    250+       0.2596
 255+       0.9424    |    255+       0.2144
 260+       0.9262    |    260+       0.1750
 265+       0.9063    |    265+       0.1413
 266+       0.9018    |    266+       0.1352
 267+       0.8971    |    267+       0.1293
 268+       0.8922    |    268+       0.1236
 269+       0.8871    |    269+       0.1182
 270+       0.8818    |    270+       0.1129
 271+       0.8764    |    271+       0.1078
 272+       0.8707    |    272+       0.1029
 273+       0.8648    |    273+       0.0982
 274+       0.8587    |    274+       0.0937
 275+       0.8524    |    275+       0.0894
 280+       0.8175    |    280+       0.0702
 285+       0.7769    |    285+       0.0548
 290+       0.7307    |    290+       0.0425
 295+       0.6792    |    295+       0.0327
 300+       0.6231    |    300+       0.0250
 305+       0.5632    |    305+       0.0189
 310+       0.5011    |    310+       0.0142
 315+       0.4382    |    315+       0.0105
 320+       0.3760    |    320+       0.0077
 325+       0.3161    |    325+       0.0055
 330+       0.2601    |    330+       0.0039
 335+       0.2093    |    335+       0.0027
 340+       0.1644    |    340+       0.0019
 345+       0.1258    |    345+       0.0012
 350+       0.0939    |    350+       0.0008
 355+       0.0683    |    355+       0.0005
 360+       0.0483    |    360+       0.0003
 365+       0.0333    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0225    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0149    |    375+       0.0001

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wed. Oct. 1. Bad news for McCain in the polls seems to be getting absorbed by the markets.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 230+       0.9867    |    230+       0.4796
 235+       0.9821    |    235+       0.4178
 240+       0.9762    |    240+       0.3586
 245+       0.9686    |    245+       0.3034
 250+       0.9589    |    250+       0.2530
 255+       0.9465    |    255+       0.2080
 260+       0.9309    |    260+       0.1688
 265+       0.9114    |    265+       0.1353
 266+       0.9070    |    266+       0.1293
 267+       0.9025    |    267+       0.1235
 268+       0.8977    |    268+       0.1179
 269+       0.8927    |    269+       0.1125
 270+       0.8875    |    270+       0.1073
 271+       0.8821    |    271+       0.1023
 272+       0.8765    |    272+       0.0975
 273+       0.8707    |    273+       0.0930
 274+       0.8647    |    274+       0.0886
 275+       0.8584    |    275+       0.0843
 280+       0.8238    |    280+       0.0656
 285+       0.7834    |    285+       0.0507
 290+       0.7373    |    290+       0.0389
 295+       0.6859    |    295+       0.0297
 300+       0.6298    |    300+       0.0225
 305+       0.5700    |    305+       0.0169
 310+       0.5078    |    310+       0.0126
 315+       0.4448    |    315+       0.0093
 320+       0.3825    |    320+       0.0067
 325+       0.3225    |    325+       0.0048
 330+       0.2662    |    330+       0.0034
 335+       0.2150    |    335+       0.0024
 340+       0.1696    |    340+       0.0016
 345+       0.1304    |    345+       0.0011
 350+       0.0979    |    350+       0.0007
 355+       0.0717    |    355+       0.0005
 360+       0.0511    |    360+       0.0003
 365+       0.0355    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0242    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0161    |    375+       0.0001
 380+       0.0104    |    380+       0.0000

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Wednesday, October 1, 2008.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 225+       0.9885    |    225+       0.5792
 230+       0.9845    |    230+       0.5158
 235+       0.9793    |    235+       0.4527
 240+       0.9726    |    240+       0.3916
 245+       0.9640    |    245+       0.3336
 250+       0.9530    |    250+       0.2800
 255+       0.9390    |    255+       0.2317
 260+       0.9214    |    260+       0.1891
 265+       0.8996    |    265+       0.1524
 266+       0.8947    |    266+       0.1457
 267+       0.8896    |    267+       0.1393
 268+       0.8842    |    268+       0.1331
 269+       0.8787    |    269+       0.1271
 270+       0.8729    |    270+       0.1213
 271+       0.8669    |    271+       0.1158
 272+       0.8607    |    272+       0.1104
 273+       0.8543    |    273+       0.1053
 274+       0.8476    |    274+       0.1004
 275+       0.8407    |    275+       0.0957
 280+       0.8028    |    280+       0.0747
 285+       0.7590    |    285+       0.0579
 290+       0.7096    |    290+       0.0446
 295+       0.6551    |    295+       0.0341
 300+       0.5965    |    300+       0.0259
 305+       0.5347    |    305+       0.0195
 310+       0.4715    |    310+       0.0146
 315+       0.4084    |    315+       0.0108
 320+       0.3469    |    320+       0.0079
 325+       0.2886    |    325+       0.0057
 330+       0.2349    |    330+       0.0041
 335+       0.1870    |    335+       0.0028
 340+       0.1452    |    340+       0.0019
 345+       0.1100    |    345+       0.0013
 350+       0.0812    |    350+       0.0009
 355+       0.0585    |    355+       0.0006
 360+       0.0411    |    360+       0.0004
 365+       0.0282    |    365+       0.0002
 370+       0.0189    |    370+       0.0001
 375+       0.0125    |    375+       0.0001

The overall "Obama to win" and "McCain to win" contracts say they have a 64.8% and 34.8% chance respectively.