Saturday Morning's Odds

Here are McCain and Obama's chances (according to Intrade's state-by-state numbers) of getting various minimum numbers of electoral votes for Sat. Oct. 25. Obama's national contract gives him an 86.6% chance to win.

Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.

      Obama           |         McCain
Votes    Probability  |   Votes    Probability
 265+       0.9900    |    265+       0.0173
 266+       0.9893    |    266+       0.0163
 267+       0.9887    |    267+       0.0154
 268+       0.9879    |    268+       0.0145
 269+       0.9872    |    269+       0.0136
 270+       0.9864    |    270+       0.0128
 271+       0.9855    |    271+       0.0121
 272+       0.9846    |    272+       0.0113
 273+       0.9837    |    273+       0.0107
 274+       0.9827    |    274+       0.0100
 275+       0.9817    |    275+       0.0094
 280+       0.9756    |    280+       0.0068
 285+       0.9679    |    285+       0.0048
 290+       0.9579    |    290+       0.0034
 295+       0.9453    |    295+       0.0023
 300+       0.9293    |    300+       0.0016
 305+       0.9093    |    305+       0.0010
 310+       0.8844    |    310+       0.0007
 315+       0.8543    |    315+       0.0004
 320+       0.8180    |    320+       0.0003
 325+       0.7753    |    325+       0.0002
 330+       0.7262    |    330+       0.0001
 335+       0.6710    |    335+       0.0001
 340+       0.6105    |    340+       0.0000
 345+       0.5455    |    345+       0.0000
 350+       0.4781    |    350+       0.0000
 355+       0.4099    |    355+       0.0000
 360+       0.3432    |    360+       0.0000
 365+       0.2793    |    365+       0.0000
 370+       0.2213    |    370+       0.0000
 375+       0.1702    |    375+       0.0000
 380+       0.1261    |    380+       0.0000
 385+       0.0908    |    385+       0.0000
 390+       0.0636    |    390+       0.0000
 395+       0.0434    |    395+       0.0000
 400+       0.0289    |    400+       0.0000
 405+       0.0190    |    405+       0.0000
 410+       0.0123    |    410+       0.0000