Each candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win outright, and a tie at 269 that throws it into the House isn't impossible.
Obama | McCain
Votes Probability | Votes Probability
235+ 0.9870 | 235+ 0.3714
240+ 0.9826 | 240+ 0.3136
245+ 0.9768 | 245+ 0.2606
250+ 0.9693 | 250+ 0.2132
255+ 0.9596 | 255+ 0.1721
260+ 0.9472 | 260+ 0.1371
265+ 0.9313 | 265+ 0.1080
266+ 0.9277 | 266+ 0.1028
267+ 0.9240 | 267+ 0.0978
268+ 0.9200 | 268+ 0.0931
269+ 0.9158 | 269+ 0.0886
270+ 0.9114 | 270+ 0.0842
271+ 0.9069 | 271+ 0.0800
272+ 0.9022 | 272+ 0.0760
273+ 0.8972 | 273+ 0.0723
274+ 0.8920 | 274+ 0.0687
275+ 0.8866 | 275+ 0.0652
280+ 0.8563 | 280+ 0.0501
285+ 0.8201 | 285+ 0.0383
290+ 0.7776 | 290+ 0.0291
295+ 0.7292 | 295+ 0.0220
300+ 0.6752 | 300+ 0.0164
305+ 0.6164 | 305+ 0.0122
310+ 0.5540 | 310+ 0.0089
315+ 0.4898 | 315+ 0.0065
320+ 0.4249 | 320+ 0.0046
325+ 0.3615 | 325+ 0.0032
330+ 0.3012 | 330+ 0.0022
335+ 0.2455 | 335+ 0.0015
340+ 0.1954 | 340+ 0.0010
345+ 0.1516 | 345+ 0.0006
350+ 0.1149 | 350+ 0.0004
355+ 0.0848 | 355+ 0.0002
360+ 0.0611 | 360+ 0.0001
365+ 0.0429 | 365+ 0.0001
370+ 0.0296 | 370+ 0.0000
375+ 0.0199 | 375+ 0.0000
380+ 0.0131 | 380+ 0.0000
Posts
1 comment:
Obama's still only running at 68% at Intrade. I'm surprised someone isn't taking advantage of the arbitrage opportunity.
Post a Comment